North Georgia Weather Forecast (Jan. 22-28, 2023)

Weather Highlights for North Georgia

• Major warming trend to begin early week

• Increasing flooding risk just after mid-week

• Very low probabilities for wintry precipitation over next 10 days

Forecast Discussion

Temperatures will begin the week on the colder side, though not as cold as this past weekend. Departing surface high pressure will give the forecast area one last day of chilly, dry conditions before a trough out West introduces southwesterly flow across much of the southeastern U.S.

A major pattern change is in store, which will favor a rather impressive warming trend this upcoming week. North Georgia will try to hang onto the lower dew points on Tuesday, but most, if not all, of North Georgia will experience a noticeable uptick in humidity levels starting mid-week. Rain showers will be possible on Tuesday, but better and heavier rain chances will begin sometime at or just after mid-week.

The western trough will make little progression eastward, especially during the first half of the week. As a result, the best rain and flash flooding chances will initially stay more focused farther west into the Mid-South and Southern Plains. The trough will eventually make slow movement eastward, which will introduce a heavy rain and flooding risk to North Georgia later in the week. The biggest uncertainty right now is on timing.

Even with the uncertainty on heavy rainfall onset, what's less uncertain is the magnitude of the upcoming warming trend. As ridging builds into the Southeast, widespread highs in the 60s (even in the mountains) will start Thursday or Friday. Rainfall and cloud cover will, however, somewhat cap daytime temperatures, but nighttime temperatures will only drop into the 50s or even 60s outside of the mountains.

Between mid-week and the end of the weekend, a solid 3-4 inches of rain will potentially fall. Locally higher amounts of 6+ inches will certainly be possible, especially in northeast Georgia, along and in the mountains. Storms will tend to train over the same areas. Given that this will be a multi-day rain event, flooding will likely occur. This risk should be taken seriously.

I don't anticipate any wintry precipitation chances for the remainder of the month for North Georgia, even in the mountains. There's a decent chance that this upcoming pattern will persist into the following week, bringing even more rainfall. Again, flooding could cause major problems for the forecast area.