North Georgia Weather Highlights for Early-Mid May

Key Highlights

• An extended period of above-average temperatures

• Periods of rainy/stormy weather

Forecast Discussion

Well, I have some good news for those ready for summer-like temperatures. The heat is here, and it’s not going anywhere. Large-scale troughing will persist across the western third of the U.S. for the next 10+ days, favoring southwesterly to zonal flow across North Georgia. The unfortunate news is that higher humidity levels will accompany the higher temperatures. Any frontal boundary that does push into the forecast area will either stall, dissipate, or lift back northward as a warm front. And please note, temperatures will run 10+ degrees above average on the non-stormy days between now and mid-month. 

In preparation for this pattern, the Climate Prediction has already outlined moderate probabilities for excessive heat across mid and southern Georgia for May 8-11. Even though this doesn’t technically include North Georgia, it’s still relevant due to North Georgia’s proximity to the area of concern.

I’ve attached a graphic that details the heat advisory and heat warning criteria for North Georgia. Forecasted heat indices of 105-109°F for 2+ hours will warrant a heat advisory. Forecasted heat indices of 110°F+ for 2+ hours will warrant a heat warning. With it only being early May, those criteria may not be reached. But since everyone is still getting re-acclimated to the heat, the NWS may still decide to issue a heat advisory for certain days, if necessary. 

Some days will bring enhanced stormy and wet conditions. Since southwesterly/zonal flow will be the norm, embedded shortwaves will bring episodes of unsettled weather. The first episode will occur this Friday into the weekend, where potential flooding and storms will cause disruptions (50-70%+ probs for rain). When there are no incoming shortwaves, most days will bring the typical 30-40% chance of storms driven by daytime heating. Those diurnally-driven storms tend to dissipate in the evening hours. Fortunately, the severe risk will be mostly limited to damaging winds. The bulk of the tornado risk will remain across the central U.S. 

So make sure you glance at the forecast each day to see if rain/storms are in the forecast. It may not rain every day, but the upcoming pattern will not favor any extended periods of dry weather.

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